摩根士丹利前亚洲区主席、耶鲁大学法学院蔡保罗中国中心高级研究员斯蒂芬·罗奇表示，中美关系是世界上最重要的双边关系，中国两国应增强互信，共同应对全球挑战，尤其是在经贸关系上，美国应摒弃零和博弈思维、积极作为。罗奇认为，这些做法能为两国之间不断升级的紧张关系开辟一条出路，因为误读只会导致更多虚假叙事，加剧紧张局势。
斯蒂芬·罗奇（Stephen Roach）
China and the United States should restore mutual trust by reopening consulates that have been closed and work together on global challenges, abandon a zero-sum trade mindset and engage more robustly, says Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.
摩根士丹利前亚洲区主席、耶鲁大学法学院蔡保罗中国中心高级研究员斯蒂芬·罗奇表示，中美应该通过重开两国于2020年关闭的两个领事馆恢复互信，共同应对全球挑战，摒弃零和经贸思维，积极作为。
To do so will offer a way out of an escalating conflict between the two countries because misunderstandings are fueling false narratives that will exacerbate tensions, said Roach, a senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School.
罗奇认为，这些做法能为两国之间不断升级的冲突开辟一条出路，因为误读只会导致更多虚假叙事，加剧紧张局势。
"In the last five years alone we have gone from a trade war to a tech war, which is increasing daily to the early stages of a new Cold War," Roach said. "So the urgency to address this conflict has never been greater."
罗奇称：“在过去短短五年里，中美就从贸易战变成了技术战，这种争端愈演愈烈，已经发展成新冷战的初期阶段。因此，缓和这场冲突迫在眉睫。”
Disputes over technology have intensified even as disputes over trade have continued, he said.
他表示，中美贸易争端仍在继续，而中美科技争端仍在加剧。
Rather than just keeping intact tariffs on imports imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump, the administration of President Joe Biden has been increasingly aggressive, Roach said, going after Chinese technology companies, most recently by adding 36 more companies and institutions to its export blacklist on Dec 15.
罗奇表示，拜登政府不仅延续了特朗普政府对中国进口产品征收的关税，而且对华政策越来越咄咄逼人，对中国科技公司进行打击。12月15日，拜登政府又将36家中国实体列入美出口管制“实体清单”。
More than 1,000 Chinese companies have been put on lists of entities and sanctions. The latest listings follow an announcement in early October of export sanctions on Chinese purchases of US-made advanced computing and semiconductor products, with the intent of strangling Chinese advanced technologies.
已经有1000多家中企被列入美出口管制“实体清单”。10月初，美国公布了《对向中国出口的先进计算和半导体制造物项实施新的出口管制》，意在扼杀中国先进技术。
"It was good news that the two presidents met in Bali on Nov 14 for over three hours," Roach said. "There have been some diplomatic follow-through efforts based on that, but in my opinion those (efforts) are more than offset by the increased tensions in the technology arena."
罗奇说：“11月14日，中美两国元首在巴厘岛举行会晤，历时超过3小时，这是一个好消息。在此基础上，双方进行了一些后续外交努力，但在我看来，这些努力被科技领域日益紧张的局势所抵消。”
In his book Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives published last month, Roach sets out a three-pronged strategy for resolving conflict.
在罗奇上个月出版的《意外冲突：美国、中国和虚假叙事的交锋》一书中，他提出了三管齐下解决中美冲突的策略。
One of the popular narratives on the US side is to blame China for its massive trade deficit, which largely prompted the Trump administration to launch a trade war with China, he says.
他表示，在美国，一种流行的观点将美国的巨额贸易逆差归咎于中国，这在很大程度上促使特朗普政府与中国展开贸易战。
"America has really no one to blame for its trade deficit other than itself, because we save too little, and when you don't save and you want to grow, you have to import surplus savings from abroad, and you run balance of payments and multilateral trade deficits."
“除了美国自己，没有人要为美国的贸易逆差负责，因为我们储蓄太少，当你没有储蓄而想要增长时，就必须从国外进口储蓄盈余，就会出现国际收支和多边贸易逆差。”
"The whole premise of Accidental Conflict is, as this conflict escalates quickly and dramatically, the false narratives are like gasoline, high octane fuel, that could easily be ignited by a spark," he told China Daily.
罗奇在接受《中国日报》采访时表示：“意外冲突的所有前提是，随着这场冲突迅速而戏剧性地升级，虚假叙事就像汽油、高辛烷值燃料，很容易被火花点燃。”
[Photo/Agencies]
The first step to resolving conflict is to restore trust, to begin dealing jointly with critical issues of mutual and global importance, starting with "low-hanging fruit" such as reopening the two consulates the two countries closed in 2020, restarting student exchange programs and relaxing visa restrictions, Roach said.
罗奇说，解决中美冲突的第一步是恢复信任，开始携手解决双方和全球重视的关键问题，可以从“容易实现的目标”着手，例如，重新开放两国于2020年关闭的两个领事馆，重启学生交流项目，放松签证限制。
In an online discussion organized by the Carter Center and the George H. W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations on Sept 22 last year, China's Ambassador to the US Qin Gang said that facing the abrupt closure of the consulate general in Houston, the Chinese side had no choice but to reciprocate and close the US consulate general in Chengdu.
中国驻美国大使秦刚在卡特中心和乔治·布什美中关系基金会联合举办的一次对话中表示，面对美方悍然关闭中国驻休斯敦总领馆，中方不得不进行对等反制，关闭了美国驻成都总领馆。
"Let the person who tied the bell on the tiger take it off," Qin said when asked if the US and China had discussed reopening the consulates in Chengdu and Houston.
对于美中是否开始协商重开成都和休斯敦总领馆的问题，秦刚说：“解铃还须系铃人。”
"This is something unilaterally started by the US side, and the US side must act first to resolve it."
“这个问题是美方单方面挑起的，要解决也需要美方首先采取行动。”
Shared responsibility
共同责任
Roach said that after dealing with the easy issues, the two sides can then proceed to work together on tougher global issues for which they have shared responsibility, such as climate change, global health and cybersecurity.
罗奇表示，在解决了这些容易的问题后，双方可以继续在气候变化、公共卫生和网络安全等更为棘手的全球问题上合作，共担责任。
"But if they remain conflicted, as they are now, and the conflict gets worse, then their ability to tackle these enormous and important global issues will be severely constrained."
“但如果中美仍然像现在这样冲突不断，关系进一步恶化，那么双方解决重大全球问题的能力将严重受限。”
His second proposal is to move away from the bilateral zero-sum trade framework that features tariffs, to end that, and focus more on pro-growth, market-opening initiatives, such as a bilateral investment treaty that focuses on reducing investment barriers.
罗奇的第二点建议是，中美经贸应摒弃零和博弈思维，停止加征关税等做法，以结束中美贸易争端，更关注促进增长的开放市场举措，例如，降低投资壁垒的双边投资条约。
In the third part of his strategy for resolving conflict, Roach proposes a new approach to engage China, different from the part-time approach that provides support to summits or the once or twice a year strategic and economic dialogue.
罗奇在第三点建议中提出了一种与中国接触的新方式，有别于为中美峰会提供支持的临时接触或每年一到两次的战略和经济对话。
"My strong view is that we need full-time engagement between senior Chinese and American professionals and diplomats, dealing 24/7, around the clock with all aspects of the relationship," he said of his proposal of establishing a US-China secretariat as a new architecture of engagement.
“我强烈认为，我们需要中美高级专业人士和外交官之间的专职接触，全天候处理中美关系的各个方面”，罗奇建议建立美中秘书处，作为一个专职接触的新架构。
Roach said that the feasibility of the fresh approach is very low, given the political environment, but he would push hard for it because the world's most important bilateral relationship is in a danger zone.
罗奇表示，考虑到政治环境，新方式的可行性很低，但他会大力推动，因为世界上最重要的双边关系正处于危险地带。
